Integrating psychosocial variables and societal diversity in epidemic models for predicting COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments must make decisions based on a variety of information including estimations of infection spread, health care capacity, economic and psychosocial considerations. The disparate validity of current short-term forecasts of these factors is a major challenge to governments. By causally linking an established epidemiological spread model with dynamically evolving psychosocial variables, using Bayesian inference we estimate the strength and direction of these interactions for German and Danish data of disease spread, human mobility, and psychosocial factors based on the serial cross-sectional COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO; N = 16,981). We demonstrate that the strength of cumulative influence of psychosocial variables on infection rates is of a similar magnitude as the influence of physical distancing. We further show that the efficacy of political interventions to contain the disease strongly depends on societal diversity, in particular group-specific sensitivity to affective risk perception. As a consequence, the model may assist in quantifying the effect and timing of interventions, forecasting future scenarios, and differentiating the impact on diverse groups as a function of their societal organization. Importantly, the careful handling of societal factors, including support to the more vulnerable groups, adds another direct instrument to the battery of political interventions fighting epidemic spread.

A lay perspective on prioritization for intensive care in pandemic times: Vaccination status matters

During a pandemic, demand for intensive care often exceeds availability. Experts agree that allocation should maximize benefits and must not be based on whether patients could have taken preventive measures. However, intensive care units (ICUs) are often overburdened by individuals with severe COVID-19 who have chosen not to be vaccinated to prevent the disease. This article reports an experiment that investigated the German public's prioritization preferences during the fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic (N?=?1014). In a series of scenarios, participants were asked to decide on ICU admission for patients who differed in terms of health condition, expected treatment benefits, and vaccination status. The results reveal an in-group bias, as vaccinated individuals preferred to allocate more resources to the vaccinated than to the unvaccinated. Participants also favored admitting a heart attack patient rather than a COVID-19 patient with the same likelihood of benefiting from ICU admission, indicating a preference for maintaining regular ICU services rather than treating those with severe COVID-19. Finally, participants were more likely to admit a patient to intensive care when this meant withholding rather than withdrawing care from another patient. The results indicate that lay prioritizations violate established allocation principles, presaging potential conflicts between those in need of intensive care and those who provide and allocate it. It is therefore recommended that allocation principles should be explained to enhance public understanding. Additionally, vaccination rates should be increased to relieve ICUs and reduce the need for such triage decisions.

Attitude toward a mandatory COVID-19 vaccination policy and its determinants: Evidence from serial cross-sectional surveys conducted throughout the pandemic in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Mandating vaccination against COVID-19 is often discussed as a means to counter low vaccine uptake. Beyond the potential legal, ethical, and psychological concerns, a successful implementation also needs to consider citizens' support for such a policy. Public attitudes toward vaccination mandates and their determinants might differ over time and, hence, should be monitored. METHODS: Between April 2020 and April 2021, we investigated public support for mandatory vaccination policies in Germany and examined individual correlates, such as vaccination intentions, confidence in vaccine safety, and perceived collective responsibility, using a series of cross-sectional, quota-representative surveys (overall N = 27,509). RESULTS: Support for a vaccination mandate declined before the approval of the first vaccine against COVID-19 in December 2020 and increased afterwards. However, at the end of April 2021, only half of respondents were in favor of mandatory regulations. In general, mandates were endorsed by those who considered the vaccines to be safe, anticipated practical barriers, and felt responsible for the collective. On the contrary, perceiving vaccination as unnecessary and weighing the benefits and risks of vaccination was related to lower support. Older individuals and males more often endorsed vaccination mandates than did younger participants and females. Interestingly, there was a gap between vaccination intentions and support for mandates, showing that the attitude toward mandatory vaccination was not only determined by vaccination-related factors such as vaccine safety or prosocial considerations. CONCLUSIONS: Because of low public support, mandatory vaccination against COVID-19 should be considered a measure of last resort in Germany. However, if removing barriers to vaccination and educational campaigns about vaccine safety and the societal benefits of high vaccination uptake are not sufficient for increasing vaccination uptake to the required levels, mandates could be introduced. In this case, measures to ensure and increase acceptance and adherence should be taken.

Money is not everything: experimental evidence that payments do not increase willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Rapid, large-scale uptake of new vaccines against COVID-19 will be crucial to decrease infections and end the pandemic. In a recent article in this journal, Julian Savulescu argued in favour of monetary incentives to convince more people to be vaccinated once the vaccine becomes available. To evaluate the potential of his suggestion, we conducted an experiment investigating the impact of payments and the communication of individual and prosocial benefits of high vaccination rates on vaccination intentions. Our results revealed that none of these interventions or their combinations increased willingness to be vaccinated shortly after a vaccine becomes available. Consequently, decision makers should be cautious about introducing monetary incentives and instead focus on interventions that increase confidence in vaccine safety first, as this has shown to be an especially important factor regarding the demand for the new COVID-19 vaccines.

The four weeks before lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: a weekly serial cross-sectional survey on risk perceptions, knowledge, public trust and behaviour, 3 to 25 March 2020.

BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, public perceptions and behaviours have had to adapt rapidly to new risk scenarios and radical behavioural restrictions.AimTo identify major drivers of acceptance of protective behaviours during the 4-week transition from virtually no COVID-19 cases to the nationwide lockdown in Germany (3-25 March 2020).MethodsA serial cross-sectional online survey was administered weekly to ca 1,000 unique individuals for four data collection rounds in March 2020 using non-probability quota samples, representative of the German adult population between 18 and 74 years in terms of age × sex and federal state (n = 3,910). Acceptance of restrictions was regressed on sociodemographic variables, time and psychological variables, e.g. trust, risk perceptions, self-efficacy. Extraction of homogenous clusters was based on knowledge and behaviour.ResultsAcceptance of restrictive policies increased with participants' age and employment in the healthcare sector; cognitive and particularly affective risk perceptions were further significant predictors. Acceptance increased over time, as trust in institutions became more relevant and trust in media became less relevant. The cluster analysis further indicated that having a higher education increased the gap between knowledge and behaviour. Trust in institutions was related to conversion of knowledge into action.ConclusionIdentifying relevant principles that increase acceptance will remain crucial to the development of strategies that help adjust behaviour to control the pandemic, possibly for years to come. Based on our findings, we provide operational recommendations for health authorities regarding data collection, health communication and outreach.

Vaccination policy reactance: Predictors, consequences, and countermeasures.

Ending the COVID-19 pandemic will require rapid large-scale uptake of vaccines against the disease. Mandating vaccination is discussed as a suitable strategy to increase uptake. In a series of cross-sectional quota-representative surveys and two preregistered experiments conducted in Germany and the US (total N = 4629), we investigated (i) correlates of individual preferences for mandatory (vs voluntary) COVID-19 vaccination policies; (ii) potential detrimental effects of mandatory policies; and (iii) interventions potentially counteracting them. Results indicate that reactance elicited by mandates can cause detrimental effects, such as decreasing the intention to vaccinate against influenza and adhere to COVID-19 related protective measures.

Cancelled routine vaccination appointments due to COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.

Pandemic measures to mitigate the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany led to cancellations of routine vaccination appointments for both adults and children. Survey data indicate that, with easing pandemic restrictions, many cancelled appointments were rescheduled or caught up. Nevertheless, 40% of cancelled appointments were still not rescheduled and were primarily cancelled by patients. Therefore, doctors should regularly remind patients of vaccinations and use every visit to improve their vaccination statuses.

School opening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: Public acceptance of wearing fabric masks in class.

OBJECTIVES: Policy decisions regarding mask wearing in schools in times of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will likely be made despite a lack of scientific data. Public acceptance is therefore an important indicator to inform the communication activities that accompany the introduction of a new policy. The goal was to assess acceptance and relevant target groups for communication activities. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional online survey embedded in the regular German COVID-19 monitoring. METHODS: Besides sociodemographic information, trust in institutions, knowledge about COVID-19 and protective behaviors, as well as risk perceptions, we assessed public acceptance of school-related mask policies of parents and non-parents (total N â€‹= â€‹957). RESULTS: In the absence of mandatory mask policies in schools in Germany in August 2020, the general agreement with mask wearing in school was low. Those living in bigger cities or communities - where class sizes are usually larger - agreed more with mask wearing in class; those who felt a greater risk, had greater trust in institutions, or felt higher self-efficacy in fighting the outbreak also wanted children to wear a mask in class. Women were more likely than men to disagree with mask wearing in class. Agreement was highest that policies should uniformly apply for all institutions within a state/province and should not be regulated at the school level or federal/country level. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing mask policies in school will require intense communication. Acceptance of these policies from teachers and pupils should be considered as well. Women seem to be an important target group as they supported mask wearing in class less than men. Women's roles in controlling infectious diseases in school should therefore receive special attention and support.

[Public trust in institutions in the first half of the Corona pandemic: findings from the COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO) project]. / Vertrauen der Bevölkerung in staatliche Institutionen im ersten Halbjahr der Coronapandemie: Erkenntnisse aus dem Projekt COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO).

BACKGROUND: In the coronavirus pandemic, two institutions play a central role in the evidence-based classification of events for politics and the population. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) coordinates the fight against the pandemic, prepares well-founded recommendations for medical professionals, the media and the population, and advises politicians. The Federal Centre for Health Education (BZgA) informs the population and institutions. GOALS: The COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO) project monitors whether and how trust in institutions changes over the pandemic. Which population groups show trust and how this is related to attitudes, risk perception and behaviour are analysed. METHODS: Cross-sectional studies with approximately N = 1000 respondents per survey were conducted since March 2020 to investigate risk perception, behaviour, acceptance of measures and trust in institutions. RESULTS: Trust in the RKI and BZgA was generally high but declined over the course of the pandemic. Higher trust for both institutions was associated with higher age of respondents, higher education, higher risk perception and higher acceptance of measures. Behaviours such as physical distancing and handwashing were shown more frequently. Men and the chronically ill showed lower trust. DISCUSSION: The results show that trust should be further promoted. This could be achieved, among other things, by taking into account the population's perspective (e.g. through COSMO) in the development and justification of strategies and measures. Communication strategies and recommendations for action should aim to support and relieve people with high-risk perceptions.

Social and behavioral consequences of mask policies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mandatory and voluntary mask policies may have yet unknown social and behavioral consequences related to the effectiveness of the measure, stigmatization, and perceived fairness. Serial cross-sectional data (April 14 to May 26, 2020) from nearly 7,000 German participants demonstrate that implementing a mandatory policy increased actual compliance despite moderate acceptance; mask wearing correlated positively with other protective behaviors. A preregistered experiment (n = 925) further indicates that a voluntary policy would likely lead to insufficient compliance, would be perceived as less fair, and could intensify stigmatization. A mandatory policy appears to be an effective, fair, and socially responsible solution to curb transmissions of airborne viruses.

Ten considerations for effectively managing the COVID-19 transition.

Governments around the world have implemented measures to manage the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). While the majority of these measures are proving effective, they have a high social and economic cost, and response strategies are being adjusted. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that communities should have a voice, be informed and engaged, and participate in this transition phase. We propose ten considerations to support this principle: (1) implement a phased approach to a 'new normal'; (2) balance individual rights with the social good; (3) prioritise people at highest risk of negative consequences; (4) provide special support for healthcare workers and care staff; (5) build, strengthen and maintain trust; (6) enlist existing social norms and foster healthy new norms; (7) increase resilience and self-efficacy; (8) use clear and positive language; (9) anticipate and manage misinformation; and (10) engage with media outlets. The transition phase should also be informed by real-time data according to which governmental responses should be updated.